Via Unsplash Experts estimate varying probabilities for human extinction or severe societal collapse within the coming decades. Toby Ord, in his book “The Precipice,” assesses a one-in-six chance of existential catastrophe this century, encompassing risks from artificial intelligence and other factors. Nick Bostrom’s work highlights a median expert estimate of 19 percent for human extinction from global catastrophic risks. Jared Diamond predicts a 50-50 chance of survival beyond 2050, based on patterns of past civilizations. Historical research shows civilizations often collapse due to recurring factors. Luke Kemp’s analysis of over 400 societies across 5,000 years indicates that inequality and elite overreach frequently lead to self-termination. Diamond identifies environmental damage, climate shifts, and poor societal responses as key contributors to downfall. These patterns suggest modern global…
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