Iranians protest U.S. attacks on nuclear sites in Iran on June 22 in Tehran. (Photo: Getty Images) Regime change is becoming unavoidable in several authoritarian states. Venezuela’s president has already been arrested and removed, while Iran and Cuba now face mounting pressure that could lead to collapse. History shows that outcomes depend less on whether regimes fall than on how transitions are managed. Postwar Germany and Japan demonstrated that regime change can succeed when institutions are preserved, while failures in Afghanistan and Iraq resulted from misguided nation-building and external interference, not from regime removal itself. Claims that the United States is inherently bad at regime change conflate military performance with political outcomes. Militarily, the United States has been effective, removing Noriega in 1989, the Taliban…
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