Iran is both a crude-oil exporter and a net importer of refined petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, because its domestic refining capacity was already insufficient before the war. Now that refining facilities are being struck, Iran will be able to produce even less refined fuel. Iran holds fewer than 90 days of petroleum reserves. With production and distribution facilities now under sustained attack and no clear prospect of resupply at prewar prices, the regime faces growing resource constraints. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted not just exports but maritime trade in the region, meaning Iran cannot easily import refined products either. Iran depends on shipments moving through the Strait for gasoline imports, estimated at hundreds of thousands of…
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