Neither the yuan nor the euro is on a path to replace the dollar as the world’s trade settlement and reserve currency, while the petroyuan will remain an unrealized dream of the Chinese Communist Party. The UAE’s exit from OPEC on May 1, 2026 immediately triggered a familiar wave of commentary warning that the petrodollar system is under threat and that China’s yuan stands ready to displace the dollar in global oil markets. That narrative is not supported by the data, and it was not supported by the data the last time it circulated, or the time before that. The petrodollar system, under which Gulf oil is priced and settled in U.S. dollars, with surplus revenues recycled into U.S. assets, has underwritten dollar dominance since…
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